“As you may recall, trade turnover between our countries was $12.4 billion last year,” Overchuk told reporters, according to Russian news agencies. “This year, it will likely stand at $6 billion, which is a very noticeable drop.”
“Russian businesses have certainly started being wary of working with Armenia. However, overall, we maintain good contacts,” he said.
Analysts in Yerevan believe that the main reason for the sharp fall in Russian-Armenian trade is that Armenia has stopped being a conduit for large-scale exports of Russian gold and diamonds to world markets and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in particular. Armenia’s trade with the UAE grew more than fivefold last year because of those re-exports.
Russia is still Armenia’s most important trading partner, having accounted for over 35 percent of its commercial exchange with the outside world in the first half of this year, compared with the European Union’s 12 percent share. The South Caucasus state is part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) that gives it tariff-free access to the vast Russian market. It also enjoys a significant discount on the price of Russian natural gas vital for the Armenian economy.
Overchuk again warned that the Armenian government’s desire to eventually join the EU is calling into question the country’s continued membership in the Russian-led trade bloc.
“We believe that simultaneous membership in the two integration associations is incompatible,” he said. “At some point, the people of Armenia will have to make a choice.”
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian made a similar point at the end of an official visit to Germany late on Wednesday.
“We realize that we will have to make a decision at some point, but we are not at that point today,” he told journalists.
Pashinian arrived in Moscow the following morning to attend and address a meeting of the prime ministers of Russia and other ex-Soviet states making up the EEU.